Rock-M-Tology: Selection Sunday – Rock M Nation

Michigan State (18-14) – The NCAA cabinet typically rewards teams who plea themselves in non-conference, as great as State positively did that.  Their 4 non-con waste came to Duke, Texas, Syracuse as great as UConn, all expected 1-3 seeds.  They additionally kick Washington along a way.  But … is which sufficient to get a great of a doubt?  The rest of their non-conference report was easy sufficient to penetrate their RPI ranking to 45th, as great as their jot down opposite tourney/bubble teams* is 5-13.  The actuality which they’ve played eighteen games opposite such teams expected gets them in — as does a actuality which they churned Purdue in a Big Ten Tourney — yet … yuck.  They’ve left 7-9 in their final sixteen games, as great as when they demeanour bad, they demeanour horrific.

* When you contend “tourney/bubble teams,” I’m not counting those who won involuntary bids from mid-major conferences. Only teams who would be in a tourney/bubble though an involuntary bid. In alternative words, Michigan State’s win over Oakland doesn’t win them any prerogative points.

Clemson (21-11) – Clemson is an additional group which is substantially improved than their jot down — they were 0-6 contra RPI Top 50 teams, yet 3 of those waste (to UNC, UNC as great as Old Dominion) came by a sum of 8 points. In all, they have been 2-6 in games motionless by 5 points or reduction or in overtime, as great as if they come up reduced of an NCAA bid, it’s their own blunder — 3-5 in such games would have substantially accomplished a deed.  (Especially given dual of those games came opposite South Carolina as great as Virginia.)

USC (19-14) – you still have no thought where USC came from.  When you primarily drew this up, they weren’t even between a First 8 Out.  But you know which Joe Lunardi has talked to sufficient cabinet members over a years that, if he says they’re potentially in, a cabinet is substantially heavily deliberation them.  The Trojans have 6 — SIX — waste to teams ranked 105th or worse in RPI.  They mislaid to Rider as great as Oregon during home … they mislaid to Oregon, Oregon State as great as TCU upon a highway … they mislaid to Bradley — 12-20 BRADLEY!  But given they kick Texas, we’re ostensible to dont consider about all of that.  It unequivocally annoys me to put them in here, yet if a cabinet values “big wins” (and ignores distressing losses) as many as Lunardi says, afterwards you can’t see a cabinet putting in potentially some-more honourable teams similar to Harvard or VCU in over them.  Bleh.

Penn State (19-13) – But during slightest USC played somebody.  Every year a cabinet seems to send a summary to a vital discussion group (usually Virginia Tech) for not personification anybody in non-conference.  And to be certain … Penn State played nobody.  Their 5 toughest non-conference games: during RPI No. 61 Virginia Tech (L, 69-79), during No. 83 Ole Miss (L, 71-84), No. 97 Fairfield (W, 64-49), No. 98 Maryland (L, 39-62!!!), as great as No. 106 Duquesne (77-73).  They mislaid to 3 vital discussion opponents by an normal of 15.3 points as great as mislaid to 15-15 MAINE (by 10 points during home) … as great as they’re a tourney team?  Seriously?  Again, you pretence they’re in … as great as it kind of creates me sick.  Yes, they’ve accomplished improved recently, as great as yes, they’ve knocked about 5 tourney/bubble teams (Wisconsin x2, Michigan State x2, Illinois).  Yes, which equates to they’re 3-1 contra “last in/first out” teams.  But … 62-39!  To Maryland!  7-4 opposite a distressing non-conference slate!  PLEASE do not prerogative this.

If Dayton beats Richmond in today’s Atlantic 10 finals (and it’s not now seeking as great likely), I’m extraordinary to see what happens.  In theory, a initial group upon a chopping retard is Penn State … yet a cabinet is quiescent sufficient which you could see them putting Penn State in, win or lose, usually so they do not have to redraw a bracket.  (They’re substantially not even starting to finish up in a First Four, honestly.)  But what which substantially equates to is, if Dayton wins, presumably USC or Clemson is out.

I consider it’s silly which conferences have been still authorised to fool around late sufficient upon Sunday which a cabinet has to have a little assumptions/guesses. (if you demand upon personification your finals upon Sunday, you should be forced to begin your diversion no after than noon ET.)

First 8 7 Out

VCU (23-11) – How VCU fares in their query for an at-large bid will substantially be dynamic by how a cabinet views Old Dominion, George Mason as great as UCLA.  If UCLA gets a 6- or 7-seed, or if GMU or ODU get a 7- instead of an 8-10 … afterwards VCU’s wins over a 3 of them competence be considerable sufficient to get them in a field.  And again, if you were a committee, this is usually a sort of group you would try to prerogative — they killed Wake Forest (yes, so did each group in a ACC, yet … it still would have been revelation if they didn’t), hardly mislaid to Tennessee as great as kick UCLA in an early-season contest as great as were confidant sufficient to fool around during Richmond as great as UAB (both losses).  Jerry Palm has them in a field, as great as I’d be all fine with which … yet in a end, a actuality which they accomplished a deteriorate 5-6 (with waste to Northeastern, Drexel as great as James Madison) will substantially do them in.  On Feb 9, they were 20-6 as great as 12-2 in a stellar Colonial, as great as they were substantially safe.  But they usually didn’t finish strong.

Harvard (21-6) – Man, would you adore it if a cabinet rewarded Harvard as well.  They went 2-3 contra tourney/bubble teams (3-5 if you equate Princeton as a tourney/bubble team) with wins over Boston College (by 9 upon a road) as great as Colorado (16 during home!) as great as a parsimonious highway detriment to Michigan (65-62).  Against teams ranked next 50th in a RPI, a Crimson went 20-1, with usually a 1-point detriment to arch opposition Yale (a group which additionally kick Boston College).  As an Ivy League team, how can you presumably put together an at-large resume improved than that?  But a actuality which they’re an Ivy group (go forward as great as try to find a final time a cabinet gave a Ivy an at-large bid) will substantially do them in.

If I’m a committee, I’m putting VCU as great as Harvard in instead of USC as great as Penn State … yet you pretence a worst.

Alabama (21-11) – Like Penn State, Alabama played nobody — as great as kick nobody — in non-conference play.  Their 5 toughest non-conference opponents according to RPI: during No. twelve Purdue (L, 47-66), No. 62 Oklahoma State (L, 60-68), No. 92 St. Peter’s (L, 49-50), vs No. 102 Seton Hall (L, 78-83), No. 132 Lipscomb (W, 71-51).  Oh yeah, as great as they additionally mislaid to Providence as great as Iowa.  Their dual many considerable non-con wins: Lipscomb as great as SE Louisiana.  That is disgusting.  They kick Georgia twice in a final week as great as finished up starting 4-4 opposite tourney/bubble teams, yet … you usually can’t see a cabinet rewarding presumably which non-conference line-up or which non-conference performance.

Boston College (20-12) – Knowing how a cabinet tends to inflate opening in a Big East as great as ACC Tournaments (I have UConn as a 2-seed in a pull next since they won a Big East Tourney, as great as for no alternative reason — they should be a 3-4, yet you know what’s coming), you have to figure their ridiculous, 23-point detriment to Clemson upon Friday competence have separated them from a field.  In all, BC went 3-8 contra tourney/bubble teams — no improved or worse than a little teams upon a “in” list — yet a Clemson loss, total with a gross-looking detriment to Yale, potentially does them in.  Their brush of Maryland would have helped them a lot, had Maryland not motionless to discharge themselves from a burble by losing 6 of 9 to finish a season.

St. Mary’s (23-8) – If St. Mary’s ends up out, they usually have themselves to blame.  A month ago, they were all safe.  They were 22-4, 10-1 in a WCC, as great as a expected 8-9 seed.  Then they mislaid to San Diego, Utah State, as great as Gonzaga twice.  The detriment to 6-24 San Diego was a misfortune detriment of any tourney/bubble team.  The 15-point detriment during Portland didn’t help. Their jot down opposite tourney/bubble teams (2-6) unequivocally shouldn’t put them next teams similar to Georgia or Clemson … yet a) 4 of those waste were by stand in digits, as great as b) San Diego!  If you were a one-man NCAA Committee, you would regularly try to give mid-majors a great of a disbelief compared to unimpressive vital discussion teams similar to a ones above, yet … San Diego!  San Diego.

UAB (22-8) – UAB is an additional group which unequivocally usually has themselves to blame.  They mislaid to Memphis twice by 4 points or less, they mislaid to Georgia by two, they mislaid to Southern Miss by four, they mislaid to East Carolina by 5 (in overtime), as great as they mislaid to Arizona State by three.  Of course, they additionally won 8 games by 5 points or less, so a complaint here competence usually be which they were not a great sufficient group to take caring of commercial operation by a gentle margin.  In all, they’re usually 1-4 contra tourney/bubble teams, as great as that’s substantially not starting to get a pursuit done.

Missouri State (25-8) – SMS played a single tourney/bubble group as great as lost, by 4 during Tennessee.  Their categorical complaint is not which they have a bad resume … it’s which they do not have a resume during all.  Their waste have been often semi-respectable — during Tennessee, during Oklahoma State, during Valpo, during Tulsa, during Indiana State, during Evansville (okay, that’s not during all semi-respectable), Northern Iowa, as great as in a MVC finals to Indiana State, yet with a report this weak, SMS had no domain for blunder … as great as they mislaid to Tennessee.  SMS might be a Post-Dispatch’s latest the one preferred team, yet … no.

By Conference

11 – Big East7 – Big Ten6 – Big 125 – ACC, SEC4 – Pac-103 – Mountain West, Atlantic 102 – Colonial

The Bracket

FIRST FOUR (in Dayton)

Clemson (21-11) vs Penn State (19-13)Michigan State (18-14) vs USC (19-14)

UA-Little Rock (17-16) vs Alabama State (15-17)Hampton (23-8) vs UT-San Antonio (16-13)

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL (in San Antonio)

1 Kansas (32-2) vs sixteen UALR / Alabama State8 George Mason (26-6) vs 9 Villanova (21-11)in Tulsa

5 Vanderbilt (23-10) vs twelve Virginia Tech (21-11)4 Wisconsin vs thirteen Memphis (25-9)in Tucson

6 Cincinnati (25-8) vs eleven Michigan (19-13)3 Florida (26-6) vs fourteen St. Peter’s (20-13)in Tampa

7 Xavier (24-7) vs 10 Florida State (21-10)2 UConn (26-9) vs fifteen Wofford (21-12)in Washington, DC

WEST REGIONAL (in Anaheim)

1 Duke (29-4) vs sixteen UC-Santa Barbara (16-13)8 Temple (25-7) vs 9 Missouri (22-10)in Charlotte

5 Arizona (27-7) vs twelve Clemson / Penn State4 Louisville (25-9) vs thirteen Bucknell (25-8)in Tulsa

6 Washington (23-10) vs eleven Illinois (19-13)3 BYU (29-4) vs fourteen Long Island (27-5)in Denver

7 Kansas State (21-10) vs 10 Tennessee (19-14)2 Notre Dame (26-6) vs UNC-Asheville (16-13)in Chicago

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL (in New Orleans)

1 Ohio State (31-2) vs sixteen Hampton / UT-San Antonio8 Utah State (29-3) vs 9 Gonzaga (23-9)in Cleveland

5 St. John’s (21-11) vs twelve Michigan State / USC4 Kentucky (24-8) vs thirteen Princeton (24-6)in Tampa

6 UNLV (24-8) vs eleven Colorado (20-13)3 Syracuse (26-7) vs fourteen Indiana State (19-13)in Cleveland

7 West Virginia (20-11) vs 10 Richmond (26-7)2 North Carolina (26-6) vs fifteen Northern Colorado (19-10)in Charlotte

EAST REGIONAL (in Newark)

1 Pittsburgh (27-5) vs sixteen Boston U. (21-13)8 UCLA (22-10) vs 9 Butler (22-9)in Washington, DC

5 Texas A&M (23-8) vs twelve Belmont (30-4)4 Purdue (25-7) vs thirteen Oakland (24-9)in Chicago

6 Georgetown (21-10) vs eleven Georgia (21-11)3 Texas (27-7) vs fourteen Morehead State (22-9)in Denver

7 Old Dominion (27-6) vs 10 Marquette (20-14)2 San Diego State (30-2) vs fifteen Akron (22-12)in Tucson

My At-First-Glance Final Four

Florida, Duke, Ohio State, Pittsburgh

Second glance: Kansas, Louisville, North Carolina, BELMONT!!!

Missouri’s unavoidable trail to destiny™ (ahem)

Temple, Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida, Ohio State. Easy peasy.

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